Alan's Thunks

Sunday, April 06, 2014

why blog and say the same thing time & time again

I sometime wonder why I don't blog more often. Then what can I say that is new, but that does not seem to worry very many columnists. John Naughton, from the Observer, used to be some one I admired but he has got totally fixated about NSA and GCHQ and spying. I do not deny that these are serious issues but writing about then every week gets tedious. Unfortunately the Observer never got to Norwich today so I have not looked at his column yet.

So perhaps I can keep on going about the same things.

My views on Europe haven't changed very much and I didn't watch the live debated by Tweedledum and Tweedledee. I am old enough to have voted in the last referendum, so how often do we need one, every twenty years, 40  years perhaps. We took a decision, it is not sensible to keep revisiting it. The first 45 years of the twentieth century saw Europe torn apart by two disastrous wars. The previous century also say terrible conflict in Europe surely if the European Union helps in any way to keep peace in Europe it is worth being involved. That is entirely emotional but so is the reason that many Eurosceptics are anti-Europe.

It is also somewhat odd the Nigel Farage clams the there is a democratic deficit in Europe. What did he do about it  as an elected member of the European Parliament. The reason for the `deficit' is because nation states do not what to give up power to Europe. A curious fact is that my original concern was that it is essentially a capitalist club and the rules are there to protect business but somehow they have introduced much more social legislation that either Conservative or Labour governments in this country. The NHS has been getting its knickers in a  twist about the 48 hour working week since they knew it was being introduced. They did no forward planning and then are taken by surprise. I do not understand the objections, we do not let truck drivers drive for more than 8 hours because it is known that after that time tiredness creeps in and mistakes are made. How many patients in hospitals get the wrong treatment because of exhausted doctors. I believe that the majority of mistakes are made in the period between 2 am and 4 am. Is that surprising? It is surprising that so many people seem to be happy to take risks with lives. There is almost certainly a complete misunderstanding of its interpretation of its purpose. No one would expect that a doctor in the middle of treating someone would just walk out if he reached 48 hours. It is meant to be an average not a strict limit as in the case of truck drivers.

The interesting feature of the anti-Europeans is that most of them are hostile to Scotland being independent However to my somewhat limited intelligence I can see no difference in the arguments being put forward by Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage et al. The tragedy is that it is all about nation states and that seems to be the cause of much war and hatred.

The reason that someone like Farage is difficult to argue with is related to  Daniel Kahneman ideas of quick thinking and slow thinking. This is not just Farage but most politics and Britain's adversarial system. The quick, that first thought, sounds plausible. The problem is that to see the errors in the argument is often quite tricky and takes time and is even counter-intuitive. It seems obvious to blame immigrants for taking our jobs. s that really true, that takes considerable thought and research but who wants to waste time doing that. As a cousin of mine used to say "Don't argue with my prejudices".

Mrs Thatcher privatised the power industry, which for electricity had one generating company and twelve local area boards who provided the power to customers. What do we have now, 6 companies and one of the biggest is a state owned French company. Could that have been foreseen? Perhaps not but less quick thinking and a more careful analysis of the long term future might have seen this coming. But having privatised this we have to set up regulating authorities, perhaps staying where we were might have been more efficient in the long run.

Another interesting saga where quick thinking might lead one into an error is The Maria Miller case. The press is saying that you cannot trust politicians to police themselves so we should not let them go down the Leveson route. But hang on the presses proposal is to let the press police themselves. The real issue is not politicians but any group who try want to police themselves. It is right that the politicians should be watched by others but so should the press.

It is now 11.30 pm and it is probably bed time!

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